November 24, 2025\u2014 According to the latest CME Group “FedWatch” tool, financial markets are pricing in a strong likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, though uncertainty remains over the magnitude of the move.
As of November 24, traders see a 69.4% probability\u200b that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 4.25%-4.50%\u200b at its December 17-18 policy meeting. Meanwhile, there is a 30.6% chance\u200b that the central bank will hold rates steady\u200b at the current 4.50%-4.75%\u200b level.
Looking further ahead, expectations for January 2026\u200b suggest a more aggressive easing path. There is a 56.9% probability\u200b that the Fed will cumulatively cut rates by 25 basis points\u200b by then, keeping the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%. However, markets are also assigning a 22.3% probability\u200b to a 50-basis-point reduction (two back-to-back 25-basis-point cuts), which would bring the rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. A smaller 20.8% chance\u200b remains that the Fed will leave rates unchanged\u200b through January.
The shifting probabilities reflect ongoing debates among policymakers about how quickly to respond to cooling inflation and potential risks to economic growth. While the Fed has already begun cutting rates from their 2022-2023 highs, markets are watching closely for signs of whether the central bank will opt for a gradual or accelerated easing cycle.
Economists note that a 25-basis-point cut in December\u200b would align with the Fed\u2019s recent messaging, while a larger move in January\u200b could signal heightened concerns about slowing labor markets or persistent disinflation.
Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including jobs reports, inflation readings, and Fed officials\u2019 speeches, for further clues on the central bank\u2019s next moves. The December decision could set the tone for monetary policy in the coming year, with implications for mortgages, business investment, and consumer spending.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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