When Nokia’s stock soared 22% in a day over AI concepts, and Microsoft’s OpenAI investment became a $135 billion goldmine, should we feel excited or vigilant?​

This week’s capital markets outpaced sci-fi. Nokia, once known for “walnut-crushing” phones, saw its stock jump 22% daily after NVIDIA’s $1 billion AI investment—proof the AI wave lifts even “vintage brands.”​

More striking: Microsoft’s early ​

13billion+OpenAIinvestmentnowvaluesat135 billion (three times Iceland’s annual GDP). Post-restructuring, the “benefit humanity”-focused AI giant nears a $500 billion valuation.​

A Fantasy of Valuation vs. Revenue​

U.S. stocks have surged: S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ hit intraday highs. Tech leads—NVIDIA rose nearly 5% in a day, Microsoft climbed ~2%, and both Apple and Microsoft briefly topped $4 trillion in market cap.​

But beneath the hype, data tells another story.​

Post-restructuring, OpenAI’s non-profit foundation holds just 26% stake, while Microsoft (27%) is the top shareholder. Despite a multinational-level valuation, the firm made only $4.3 billion in H1 2025—over 116x valuation-to-revenue, unthinkable in traditional industries.​

Global AI venture capital hit $121.9 billion in H1 2025 (53% of total global VC). Yet MIT reports 95% of AI firms haven’t turned commercial profits—creating a “rampant investment, muted returns” cycle.​

Worse is “industrial chain idling”: 37% of $400 billion global AI infrastructure investment circulates within the chain. A single broken link could trigger a collapse.​

Is Nokia’s “Second Spring” a Transformation or Hype?​

NVIDIA’s Nokia investment made “veteran users” say “my youth is back,” but Nokia is no longer a phone giant—it’s a communications equipment firm. The $1 billion funds Nokia’s AI plans, and the pair will co-develop 6G.​

Whether this is real transformation or market hype needs time to verify. Notably, as capital chases AI, gold corrected—spot gold and gold futures fell below $4,000. “Abandon gold for AI” signals capital’s enthusiasm for tech revolution.​

OpenAI’s Restructuring: Drifting From Its Original Mission​

OpenAI completed restructuring this Tuesday, becoming a for-profit entity controlled by a non-profit. The year-long legal battle ended.​

Under the new structure: non-profit OpenAI Foundation controls the OpenAI Group public benefit firm. The foundation has 26% of the for-profit arm, Microsoft holds ~27% ($135 billion value), and 47% goes to other investors and employees.​

This seems to balance R&D funding needs and “benefit humanity” goals, but flaws exist.​

The 2019 “100x profit cap” for the for-profit subsidiary was changed to “dynamic adjustment” in restructuring. The public benefit firm’s legal framework allows higher profit shares.​

Microsoft’s deep tie-up shows capital dominance. Per the new deal, OpenAI will buy $250 billion of Azure cloud services, and Microsoft gets OpenAI’s model IP rights until 2032—even if OpenAI achieves AGI.​

Elon Musk’s opposition isn’t baseless. The OpenAI co-founder’s $97.4 billion acquisition offer was rejected, and his lawsuit claims “commercialization violates the founding agreement.” While the foundation says it retains decision-making power, 26% stake’s ability to resist capital’s short-term return demands is doubtful.​

Chip Giants Validate the “Water Seller First” Law in AI​

The AI boom benefits not just algorithm firms but hardware makers. SK Hynix’s Q3 operating profit jumped 62% to 11.38 trillion won (~$7.94 billion)—a record high.​

As NVIDIA’s major memory chip supplier, strong AI-driven memory demand fueled its profits—like the gold rush: miners may not profit, but shovel sellers do.​

NVIDIA’s P/E ratio hit 51x when its market cap topped $4 trillion; Super Micro Computer’s P/E exceeded 800x after a 3x annual stock surge—far beyond traditional value metrics.​

Even PayPal joins the AI trend, partnering with OpenAI to integrate services into ChatGPT. No one wants to miss the AI wave.​

Bubble or New Era? Market Divisions Intensify​

Enthusiasm aside, doubts persist. Bank of America’s survey calls the AI bubble the top “tail risk” for investors, while Goldman Sachs says AI will add $20 trillion to the U.S. economy.​

The divide lies in “value realization cycle” views. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood argues: “If AI expectations hold, we’re at the start of a tech revolution.”​

Regardless, two trends are clear:​

First, infrastructure investment dividends fade. 2025 tech giant capex rose 40% YoY, but Wall Street is cutting holdings in heat dissipation and chips. This follows tech transformation rules: enablers profit first, value finally settles at the application level.​

Second, vertical implementation is key. Unlike OpenAI’s “comprehensive” approach, DeepSeek penetrates vertical scenarios via low-cost strategies. Tencent used AI to boost ad matching accuracy (20% marketing revenue growth); Alibaba’s AI products saw 7 straight quarters of triple-digit growth. These prove AI’s value shifts from “demonstration brilliance” to “solving practical problems.”​

When capital cools, we’ll see AI’s true face. OpenAI’s restructuring is a stone in the AI lake, creating far-reaching ripples.​

Behind ​

500billionvaluationiscapital’sAGIfantasy;4.3 billion revenue reminds us of tech implementation hardships. If AI changes the world, everyone should benefit, not just watch. After all, tech’s true value lies in improving ordinary people’s lives.